Trump election bets boost Polymarket volumes to record $116M in July
Fevered speculation over the United States presidential election has driven crypto prediction platform Polymarket's volumes to record levels — with more volume recorded in the first two weeks of July than any other month in its history.
According to Dune Analytics, Polymarket has witnessed $116.4 million in volume this month, surpassing the $111.5 million in volume throughout June, its previous top month.
Much of the volume traded across the prediction market can be directly attributed to speculators betting on the outcome of the United States presidential election.
Political traders have wagered a staggering $263.5 million total on which presidential candidate will most likely win the US election on Nov. 4.
At the time of publication, Trump remains the crowd favorite among prediction traders with a 69% odds of victory, followed in a distant second by current President Joe Biden at 19%.
Vice President Kamala Harris is third at 6%, while former First Lady Michelle Obama is fourth at just 2%.
A total of $471.9 million has been wagered across Polymarket since the beginning of this year on events ranging from politics, finance, sport, and crypto.
Polymarket brings on election whiz Nate Silver
Meanwhile, Polymarket has reportedly brought on election analyst and statistician Nate Silver as an advisor, according to a July 16 report from Axios.
Silver said that prediction markets aren’t all about financial speculation, they’re most useful at helping people understand the broader sentiment during turbulent social and political times.
Related: Biden’s reelection odds brush single digits on Polymarket
“Probabilities really matter when you’re trying to make plans,” Silver said.
Notably, Silver is one of the few analysts who believes Trump’s decision to pick crypto-friendly Ohio Senator JD Vance as his running mate could be detrimental to Trump’s campaign.
On May 14, Polymarket closed a $70 million Series B funding round led by Peter Thiel’s Founder Fund and included notable participants, including Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin.
Despite being unavailable to traders residing in the United States, Polymarkets is used primarily to speculate on the outcome of American political events.
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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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