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Can Bitcoin get a green monthly close above $64.3K?

CointelegraphCointelegraph2024/08/28 14:20
By:Zoltan Vardai

Bitcoin’s summer illiquidity could carry on into September, but lower interest rates could kickstart the real bull market in early 2025, according to analysts.

Bitcoin’s summer lull could finally come to an end with a bullish breakout if it manages to close the month of August in the green.

To close August in the green, Bitcoin’s ( BTC ) price needs a monthly close above $64,300, which would require an over 7% rally from the current $59,960.

While the monthly candle close is difficult to predict, Bitcoin’s recent price action is a positive sign, according to Bitfinex analysts, who told Cointelegraph:

“Bitcoin reclaiming recently lost key levels like $64,000 and $61,500 are bullish signs… The current market is still illiquid, and we continuously have low-volume volatile moves. The current move lower is an unwinding of perps and spot long positions that had entered the market before the Jackson Hole conference.”
BTC/USD, 1-month chart. Source: Cointelegraph

Bitcoin price has been struggling to trade above the $60,000 psychological mark. The world’s first cryptocurrency is down over 12% on the monthly chart, according to Cointelegraph data.

Bitcoin struggles to overcome $63,900 resistance 

Analysts warned that the lack of liquidity characteristic of the summer could carry on into September and bring downside volatility.

Thus, Bitcoin will struggle to overcome the $63,900 resistance, according to Bitfinex Analysts, who added:

“Price is a reflection of historical market transactions, we must look under the hood. Price rallied up to the Short Term Holder (STH) realized price of around $63,900 currently and thus, we also saw some profit-taking from the STH cohort.”
BTC/USD, 1-day chart, ,900 resistance. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin’s average returns for the month of September were negative at -4.78% since 2013, according to analysts.

Lower interest rates could trigger Bitcoin bull market in early 2025: Nexo 

Bitcoin price remains range-bound between $58,000 and $64,000 amid the summer illiquidity.

However, a period of lower interest rates could trigger Bitcoin’s parabolic run, according to  Kristian Hapalampiev, the structured products lead at Nexo.

He told Cointelegraph:

“Should lower interest rates come into effect to create a strong tailwind for BTC, then the bull market may only be taking a breather now, before intense growth returns in early-to-mid 2025.”

Investors are increasingly expecting an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve at its upcoming meeting on Sept. 18.

Odds of an interest rate cut. Source: CME FedWatch

According to the latest data from the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of a 25 basis-point rate cut currently stand at 65.5%, while the odds of a 50 basis-point rate cut are at 34.5%.

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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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