US presidential debate spurs risk-off sentiment in crypto market, analysts say

The price of bitcoin fell 2.6% from around $57,700 to $56,100 in the hours following Tuesday's televised presidential candidate debate before posting a slight recovery to a current price of around $56,400. "The U.S. presidential debate was a sell-the-news event, with Trump’s performance underwhelming in comparison to his previous debate against Biden, and the consensus view seems to be that it was a loss for him," Bitfinex analysts said.

Following the debate, risk-off trading behavior intensified, with analysts highlighting that a Trump victory is generally viewed favorable for risk assets , including crypto. "His involvement in crypto is now clear, given recent news about his DeFi project and campaign promises he has made to remove U.S. Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) chair Gary Gensler from office," the analysts told The Block.

QCP Capital analysts also anticipate rising risk-off sentiment as uncertainty looms over the outcome of the Nov. 5 election, with no clear favorite emerging. "The absence of a clear frontrunner in this election, coupled with the murky policy stances from both parties, heightens the possibility of a risk-off move in risk assets as we approach election day," QCP Capital analysts said.

BRN analyst Valentin Fournier suggested that Kamala Harris’s debate performance has led the market to reassess her chances of winning, potentially putting downward pressure on bitcoin's price. "This is because Harris is a bearish signal for bitcoin as it postpones some of the progress that could be made under Trump's administration," he added.

Harris' odds improve in post-debate prediction markets

QCP Capital suggested that U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris's performance in the debate has improved her odds of winning the election. "It appears that Harris won in the court of public opinion, as Trump seemed notably flustered by Harris' remarks, and online betting sites saw the odds shifted in Harris' favor after the debate," QCP Capital analysts said. 

Following Tuesday's presidential debate, Harris' chances of winning the November election improved on the crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket, increasing from 46% to 49%. Meanwhile, Trump's odds decreased from 52% to 49%. On PredictIt, the price for a Trump victory fell by 6 cents to 47 cents per share, while Harris' odds climbed to 57 cents from 53 cents.

YouHodler chief of markets Ruslan Lienkha sees Harris' improved odds as adding additional pressure to crypto prices in the medium term. "It is highly likely that regulation will remain relatively unfavorable for the crypto market participants under Democrats' governance," he told The Block.

Bitcoin BTC -0.74% traded down almost 1.5% in the past 24 hours, changing hands at $56,400 at 8:50 a.m. ET, according to The Block’s Price Page . The price of ether decreased by around 1% to $2,322 in the same period.