Institutions look ahead to the Bank of England interest rate resolution (3) - the probability of a rate cut is not high, the voting ratio shows divergence, the pace of QT may change

1. Citi: Expect rates to remain unchanged at 5.0%, with a 7-2 vote more likely. Forward guidance will remain broadly unchanged. Noise from the U.S. is unlikely to affect this meeting, but could have an impact in December.
2. UBS: expects rates to remain unchanged with a 7-2 vote. likely to stop active Treasury sales in the next fiscal year and taper in a more gradual manner. Rates are expected to fall to 3.25% by the end of next year, compared to 3.00% previously expected.
3. HSBC: expected to leave rates unchanged at 5.0%, with a 7-2 vote. a 25 bps cut cannot be ruled out. The pace of active bond sales is expected to remain unchanged, with the APF reducing its holdings by £137 billion next year.
4. Lloyds: rates expected to remain unchanged at 5.0%, with a vote of 8-1, with Dhingra either in favor of a cut and Ramsden or Taylor likely to join the cut camp. Forward guidance will be unchanged. APF cut expected to be £100 billion.
5. Morgan Stanley: rates unchanged at 5.0%, vote 6-3. policy language may be dovish, hinting at possible action in November. Risks tend to be lower with QT size of £100 billion next year.
6. Westminster Bank: rates expected to remain unchanged, with a ~10% chance of a cut. Vote expected to be 7-2, with forward guidance largely unchanged. Maintain passive £87 billion debt reduction target. Rates to fall to 4.00% by May next year.
7. BNP Paribas: Expect rates to remain unchanged at 5.0%, with a 7-2 vote, and expect the next cut to come in November. A gradual slowdown in the labor market will support the Bank of England to continue its easing cycle next year with four more rate cuts.