Bull market returns quickly? Can BTC break new highs in October? | Trader Observation

On October 10, BTC fell below the $60,000 mark in the U.S. market, and a single long order of $10 million was liquidated. It then began to rise unilaterally, with the highest increase reaching 15.83%. The intensity of this unilateral rise was extremely unexpected, and it rose rapidly without any correction.

The macro environment does not seem to have changed significantly in the past few days. Traders have not made significant adjustments to their pricing of whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in November. The performance of U.S. stocks and gold has also been rising steadily. What factors have led to such a strong trend of BTC? Is this an independent market for BTC or is the liquidity of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut gradually overflowing to the cryptocurrency market?

How should we view this strong rise? Is it a consensus that the bull market has returned or a false breakthrough caused by a continuous increase in volume? Traders in the market have their own opinions.

Technical analysis school

@CryptosLaowai

Believe that BTC has broken through the intersection of the upper supply line and a demand line of this cycle. From the perspective of form, this round of rising market is very similar to the market at the end of August. The rise showed a flag shape and then a false breakout and fell. From the explosion heat map, there is not much short-order liquidity to be obtained upward, but there is a large amount of long-order liquidity to be obtained downward. At present, the average price of his short position remains around US$65,000, and the target of the downward break is set at US$55,000. The US dollar is around the end of the year, and I don’t think there will be a new market at the end of the year. The real bull market will not start until 2025.

@yekoikoi

I think from the structure from July 29 to now, BTC has a good look, and this time after breaking through the demand line, it did not fall as smoothly as before, but instead had support in the 59800 range, which is 50% of the rise from September 6 to now. From the perspective of retracement, this is a good retracement, and the daily moving average here has slowly formed a long arrangement. The Wyckoff accumulation structure has emerged, and there are major players accumulating funds. From a simplistic perspective, the drop from 65,000 to 60,000 may be the position of the last demand point (LPS). Demand has always been greater than supply, which means that buying is greater than selling. At present, we still need to wait for the confirmation of the breakthrough. The bottom long orders are firmly held and no new operations are carried out.

@Patrade_Buer

Daily level: The rising market has come out, and the 5w9 position mentioned in the October monthly report is the final entry position; continue to pay attention to the bearish ob test, whether it directly breaks through the range-H or refuses to distribute downwards and retracements; the retracement focus is still 64500 and 63,000 US dollars, and the retracement is the buying position. The focus of spot orders is still 63,000 US dollars.

Hourly level: After the upper and lower pin sucking cups on October 15, it plundered upwards again. If you want to short, if you want to be safe, you need to pay attention to the test of H1 bullish OB. The entity here is broken, and the pullback is the opportunity to short; the market is still in an upward trend, here we first look at the plunder of IDM and then test the H1 bullish OB to buy opportunities; if it falls below the H1 bullish OB, then look forward to the callback that we expected, pay attention to the plunder of $64,500 (short-term) blue range—L and then buy opportunities, and focus on the H4 bullish OB near $63,000 Buy opportunities.

@siyizhisheng3

The current structure has been fluctuating and rising since the bottom of 5B, and the funds have accumulated! The current price of 67000 breaks through the pressure of the previous high of 66500 on the daily line and enters the secondary channel trajectory chart, as shown in Figure 1: The red channel is a fluctuating downward consolidation, and the white channel is the secondary channel trajectory. It has just walked out of the new space from the red consolidation channel! In the short term, it continues to be bullish, but from the perspective of the secondary channel, it is currently at the turning point of B, that is, the first wave of the new three-wave structure breaks away from the previous consolidation range, and the second wave rises. It is currently at the B turning position of the secondary channel.

From the perspective of the trading structure, 80% of the B turning positions will fluctuate upward and consolidate, which is similar to climbing more than accelerating! From the perspective of the trading structure, I personally think that Bitcoin needs to fluctuate from a wide range to a narrow range at the B turning position and then change the market to accelerate the B turning!

From the daily line to the weekly line, the weekly line is currently still in the channel pressure turning point area and has not broken through. As shown in Figure 3: The weekly BTC is still suppressed in the triangle area, and the weekly line has only two trends in the triangle pressure area.

1. Break through the pressure triangle and use the second weekly line for consolidation.

2. Oscillating and consolidating below the pressure line, use the second line for accumulation.

No matter which line you take, the overall trend is comprehensive. The short-term trend forms a preliminary thinking on the right side! The rise is greater than the fall. Be cautious in shorting. The position of the weekly pressure daily line B turning point, I think it is mainly for accumulation!

Currently, the large-scale support has risen to around 64,700 and the weekly value has risen to 63,000.

Daily pressure zone is 68,600 and weekly pressure line is around 71,600.

Macro analysis faction:

@Crypto_Painter

It is believed that this round of rise may be related to the excessive premium of MSTR and the decoupling of BTC. MSTR started 2 weeks ago. There were market rumors that MSTR would be included in the QQQ index, completely decoupled from BTC, and walk out of a sustained bullish trend.

Hedge funds shorting MSTR and going long on BTC will narrow the premium gap between BTC and MSTR, which may bring potential 20%-30% returns to hedge funds.

Under the current market conditions, BTC is rising rapidly and approaching a new high, while MSTR is fluctuating near a new high. For hedge funds, such arbitrage will come to an end, so BTC's short-term bullish trend may stagnate.

@Maoshu_CN

I think the reason for this round of rise is that the US technology stocks are approaching the third quarter earnings report, investors are more calm in buying than before, and under the premise of a good investment environment, the economic situation is also optimistic, and the preference for risky investment has increased.
The flow of funds in the sector, the cryptocurrency market has once again attracted some overflow liquidity, the large market into the small market, the large market into BTC. This is enough to prove that the current market liquidity is still stretched, and the liquidity of the technology stock profit overflow will gradually flow into small-cap stocks and BTC. Personally, I don’t think it has anything to do with Trump’s increased chance of winning. Those who trust Trump will always believe that he can win the election, and those who don’t trust him will still feel distrustful even if his approval rating is high now.

However, after the four major U.S. stock indexes closed higher today, BTC did not get more bullish momentum. According to the previous logic, the original overflow liquidity of the U.S. stock market has reached a bottleneck. Next, unless the U.S. stock profit effect is upgraded again, more liquidity overflows, or external stimulus, BTC can usher in a breakthrough again. Tonight's weekly initial jobless claims and September retail data may become opportunities.

In terms of funds, the market value of stablecoins on the market increased by 100 million US dollars, currently 173.2 billion US dollars: USDT: Official website data 119.766 billion, compared with yesterday, there is no change, Asian and European funds temporarily stopped capital inflows, but the existing stock is still sufficient. Trading volume continues to increase, and Asian and European funds are quite active; USDC: The data website shows that the market value increased by 153 million and the trading volume increased by 87.92%. It is obvious that funds in the U.S. area have begun to flow back and actively participate in transactions. The U.S. time has returned to its previous active state.

@Phyrex_Ni

It is believed that the short-term rise of BTC is strongly correlated with the purchasing power of BTC ETF. On the trading day of October 15, there was a direct net inflow of 4,323 BTC, and the inflow of funds brought by this data was close to US$300 million. The rise of BTC in recent days is linked to the financial report of BlackRock. It can be clearly seen that under the stimulation of the favorable financial report of BlackRock, the purchasing power of #BTC has been greatly improved, and there is also considerable support for the price of BTC.

Even apart from BTC, most institutions in the United States are maintaining a positive inflow, only three institutions are still maintaining zero, and the other nine institutions are all positive inflows, with no outflows at all. Even Grayscale's two ETFs have 635 BTC, so BlackRock's stimulus is not only on itself, and the huge amount of funds entering BlackRock has also allowed other ETF institutions to see spring.

Although the purchasing power of other institutions is not very large, it can be clearly seen that the FOMO sentiment of users is beginning to increase. It is very likely that this is the start of Q4. After all, we have said countless times that there are too many positive factors in Q4, which is very worth looking forward to. Yesterday, BTC spot ETF has already inflowed 6,035 BTC, and more funds are flowing towards BTC.

Data Analysis:

@CryptoPainter_X

It has been observed that the negative premium between Coinbase BTCUSD spot and USDT has lasted for 16 days. It can be confirmed that: first, USDT has been in a negative premium state overall during these 16 days, indicating that some funds have flowed out of the stablecoin market; secondly, the Coinbase spot market has been shipping during these 16 days; and the buying in the futures market has been strong, which is the driving force behind the price. It is necessary to confirm whether there is follow-up of spot buying below. The bullish trend led by futures is rapid. It is entirely possible to quickly break through 69,000 or 70,000. If there is no follow-up of spot buying, a huge lower shadow line for long liquidity liquidation will appear sooner or later.

From the perspective of the Fear and Greed Index, the Fear and Greed Index has broken through 70 for the first time since July 29, reaching the "Greed" state.

The red curve in the figure is the trend of the Fear and Greed Index in the past year. If it is regarded as an indicator similar to RSI, then every time the price closes at a new low but the index does not go out of a new low, it can be regarded as a divergence, which seems to be a way to judge the top and bottom.

The previous price of 52000 closed at a new low, but the index did not, indicating a bottom; similarly, if the current price cannot break through 7w for a long time, but the index reaches a new high; then it may also indicate some kind of top signal.

@Xbt886

Observing that the comparison range has been broken, I will push the anchor point of VP to the low point of 7-5 days

Combined with the VP from March 6 to now

Think:

1.65754 is the current support, if it fails, the current uptrend will end

2. The upper resistance is 69544, a potential target, pay attention to the word potential

3. It is not worth trading here, wait for a breakthrough or wait for a break

4. According to the VP of the entire six months, VAH is 70110

@biupa

Observe the current market:

twap buy - Binance, OK - Chinese Capital

twap sell - cb, kraken, bybit - Western Capital

CVD Downward, active selling accounts for the majority

But the market is upward, some dealers are using iceberg orders to protect the market, which makes CVD unable to smash down (active selling orders are absorbed by iceberg buy orders)

If this main force is strong enough, it will absorb more than 70 and support until retail investors return to the market, and the bull market will return;

If the main force is exhausted in advance, it will start to smash.