BTC Well Supported Into The US Election
From deribit insights
Crypto Market Update
Bitcoin surged this week, approaching $69k with $72k in sight, thanks to October’s seasonal boost. But strong USD momentum, driven by US Treasury selling, is putting a temporary lid on BTC gains. Institutional interest remains strong, with $2.13 billion in BTC ETF inflows over the last six days. A major boost comes from the SEC approving BTC ETF options on the NYSE, enhancing liquidity. As Bitcoin’s dominance hits 58%, risk-on sentiment is expected to persist, supported by strong US equities and Trump’s lead in the polls. More gains ahead.
Crypto Volatility Overview
Crypto volatility eased last week as the rally stalled. Implied volatility dipped in BTC’s short end, though ETH held up better. Long-term vols remain stable, likely holding until after the elections. Price action stayed within expected ranges, with ETH attempting a breakout over the weekend but failing. Despite Trump’s rising odds, the impact on crypto prices has paused. We’ll see more clarity after Nov 5th .
Skew Term Structures
Skew term structures edged higher, favouring upside despite some hedging this week. Both curves sit in call skew, but premiums are below peak levels due to a lack of breakout confirmation. With $2 billion flowing into BTC ETFs, we may see last-minute hedging demand, though puts aren’t commanding high premiums.
ETC/BTC and Relative Value
ETC/BTC bounced off the lows but gave back half its gains. ETH volatility outperformed BTC this week, widening the vol spread to over 6 points. Our ETH short covering proved well-timed, and we see little edge in trading the spread at these levels. Skew RV remains stable, with a slight put premium in short expiries and a call premium in longer expiries past March 2025.
BTC and ETH Option Flows
BTC volumes surged 50% to $11 billion, with a 63/37 split favoring calls. Despite this, flows weren’t as bullish, with profit-taking on short-dated call spreads and hedging activity in Dec24 and Jun25 risk reversals. Some bullish positioning included rolling Dec 75k calls to 100k strikes. ETH volumes rose 30% to $1.8 billion, with a 58/42 split favoring puts. Lack of strong bullish flows persisted despite early spot strength.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
US CFPB finalizes its rule for large nonbank firms offering digital payments, but excludes crypto
Trump Media in talks to acquire ICE crypto firm Bakkt – report
ETHは1,800.00ドルを下回り、現在は1,799.79ドルで取引されています。
Magic Eden Traders Set to Receive $312 Million Worth of ME Tokens in Airdrop