30 million bets on Trump's victory, this mysterious whale claims: just to make money

Original Title: The Trump-Betting Whale Speaks Out: 'I Have Absolutely No Political Agenda'

Original Author: Alexander Osipovich, THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

Original Translation: zhouzhou, BlockBeats

Editor's Note: This article describes a French trader who goes by the name Théo, who has bet over $30 million on Trump's victory on the prediction market Polymarket, expecting Trump to win by a large margin. Théo insists he has no political motives and is only in it for the money, but due to the massive amount of funds involved, he is almost unable to withdraw these bets, bearing significant risk.

The following is the original content (edited for readability):

The mysterious person who bet over $30 million on Trump's victory stated, "I do not intend to manipulate the U.S. election."

This individual, who has wagered more than $30 million on Trump's victory, wants the public to understand that he has no intention of manipulating the U.S. election. "My goal is just to make money," the man, who calls himself "Théo," said during a Zoom interview with a Wall Street Journal reporter earlier this week. He introduced himself as a Frenchman who has lived in the U.S. and previously worked as a trader at several banks.

Théo's massive bets on Polymarket have drawn widespread attention, as the prediction market is not open to Americans. Last month, The Wall Street Journal reported that four accounts on the platform systematically purchased bets on Trump's victory, raising the odds of Trump defeating Vice President Kamala Harris. Blockchain data shows that the funds for these accounts all came from the same cryptocurrency exchange, sparking discussions about the motives behind the "Trump whale."

Last week, New York-based Polymarket stated that it had contacted this "Trump whale" and launched an investigation into the bets. The company described the bettor as a French financial professional with extensive trading experience.

The shadow of former President Trump is cast on an American flag during a rally in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo: Brendan McDermid/Reuters)

Trump's Projection on the American Flag: The "Whale" in the Shadow

Polymarket stated in a statement: "Based on our investigation, we learned that this person took a directional position based on his personal views of the election." Polymarket's statement aligns with Théo's self-description, as he confirmed that he has communicated with members of Polymarket's legal and compliance team.

Currently, election observers are meticulously analyzing various data in an effort to predict the outcome of what is considered the most intense and closely contested U.S. presidential election in history. Prediction markets, as platforms that allow people to bet on various potential events, have become one of the ways to forecast election results. Historical research shows that candidates with the highest odds in prediction markets before the election typically end up winning the White House.

However, the emergence of the "Trump whale" exposes the limitations of current prediction markets: despite a significant increase in trading volume on Polymarket this year, the market size remains relatively small and is still susceptible to manipulation by a wealthy and outspoken investor through multimillion-dollar bets.

Théo: The Mysterious Bet of the Anonymous Whale

After an article about his bets was published on October 18, Théo contacted The Wall Street Journal via email. To prove that he is indeed the "Trump whale" on Polymarket, the paper asked him to place a bet on whether Taylor Swift would announce her pregnancy in 2024—one of many non-political small bets on the platform. Minutes later, the Polymarket website showed that an account named "Theo4" had indeed placed a small bet on Swift's pregnancy.

During the Zoom call, Théo, wearing a gray Nike sweatshirt and sporting a neatly trimmed beard, spoke in slightly accented English, stating that he made his betting decision after analyzing polls that underestimated Trump's support. He denied speculation that he was creating momentum for Trump through his bets.

Théo refused to disclose his real name, and The Wall Street Journal was unable to verify all the details of his story. Although he claims these bets were made with his own funds, the authenticity cannot be confirmed, nor can any connections to political organizations or Trump allies be ruled out.

"I absolutely have no political agenda," Théo wrote in his initial email.

Théo stated that he is reluctant to reveal his name because his friends and children are unaware of his wealth, and he does not want them to know about his bets on Trump. He describes himself as an experienced financial investor willing to risk tens of millions of dollars in highly confident trades, but political betting is a completely new field for him.

Théo mentioned that he began paying attention to U.S. polling data earlier this year and found that many polls from 2016 and 2020 underestimated Trump's support. He believes that if Trump exceeds expectations again this year, he will defeat Kamala Harris. Théo also referred to the "shy Trump supporter effect"—the idea that some voters are unwilling to disclose their support for Trump to pollsters.

"I know many Americans who would vote for Trump but wouldn't tell you," Théo said, dismissing the adjustments made by polling organizations to correct the issues from 2016 and 2020, stating he "hasn't seen any substantial changes."

Théo's Huge Bets on Trump: Confidence and Concerns

Over the course of two weeks, Théo sent dozens of emails to The Wall Street Journal, criticizing what he perceived as mainstream media polls biased toward Harris. During the Zoom call, he claimed that media outlets supported by the Democrats were paving the way for social unrest by hyping the intense competition of the campaign, while he anticipated Trump's overwhelming victory.

Théo expressed surprise at the public's interest in his trades; he began quietly betting in August, using the username Fredi9999 to purchase millions of dollars' worth of Trump victory contracts. At that time, the odds for Trump and Harris on Polymarket were roughly even.

To avoid drastic price fluctuations, Théo spread his bets over several days. Nonetheless, as the betting amounts increased, Théo noticed that other traders would avoid quoting prices when Fredi9999 was purchasing, making it difficult for him to place bets at ideal prices. Consequently, he created three additional accounts in September and October to mask his buying behavior.

If Trump wins and achieves the overwhelming victory he expects, Théo could earn over $80 million in returns, doubling his investment. His main bet is on Trump winning the electoral votes, and he has additionally wagered millions on Trump winning the popular vote—a scenario many observers consider unlikely. Furthermore, he has also bet on Trump winning in swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

If Harris wins the election, Théo could lose the vast majority of his $30 million—an amount that constitutes a significant portion of his liquid assets.

Due to his massive position on Polymarket, he is almost unable to close his positions without affecting the market. According to data from Polymarket Analytics, the four "Trump whale" accounts collectively hold about 25% of the contracts for Trump winning the electoral votes and over 40% of the contracts for winning the popular vote.

Théo admitted to feeling nervous. He is confident in Trump's victory, estimating the odds to be between 80% and 90%, but he is also concerned that last-minute breaking news could affect the outcome of his bets.

"Anything can happen at any time," Théo stated.