Bitget App
Trade smarter
Buy cryptoMarketsTradeFuturesCopyBotsEarn
Weekend Brief

Weekend Brief

QCP CapitalQCP Capital2024/11/04 16:00
By:[email protected]

Thursday’s Core PCE data came in marginally higher than forecasted (2.7% YoY actual vs 2.6% YoY expected). On the contrary, Friday’s NFP data delivered a downward surprise (12k actual vs 110k expected), causing the DXY to rebound and reclaim the 104 level.

Despite the weaker NFP print, US unemployment rate remains unchanged at 4.1%. The market’s expectation of a 25bps November rate cut has now risen to 96.4% probability.

Equity indices closed Friday in the green after strong earnings from AMZN. US Treasury yield, which initially fell on a kneejerk reaction to NFP data, rallied to a four-month high as the market remain cautious of bond-buying into Election Week. Brent and WTI saw slight gains on reports that Iran was preparing a retaliatory strike on Israel.

BTC teased the ATH on Tuesday night, trading to a high of 73.6k in anticipation of election week. Despite how outstanding BTC has been performing in the entire week, ETH was relatively muted, failing to break through 2.7k levels.

These came on the backdrop of strong ETF inflows, with over 2.1bn of net inflows for BTC throughout the week. BlackRock’s IBIT saw 872m worth of net inflow in a singular day, the largest ever since its launch in January.

Despite Bitcoin’s dip below $69,000 on Friday, we continue to see significant interest in the market, with OI for both total BTC futures and BTC options staying heightened at $40.65b and $25.3b respectively (an increase of +24.20% and +36.76% compared to the start of Oct) .

Options market is trading BTC 7 day implied vols at 74.4%, substantially higher than the past 7 day realised vols of 41.4%, indicating a significant risk premium around the elections.

What to expect on Election Week

While Trump has been favoured as the next POTUS, bets on Trump have come off significantly from a 66% high on Polymarket, to 57% for Trump and 43% for Harris. Regardless of the outcome, we believe the Elections will be another sell-the-news action, replicating the Nashville Bitcoin conference.

1

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

PoolX: Locked for new tokens.
APR up to 10%. Always on, always get airdrop.
Lock now!

You may also like

Bernstein sets $200,000 Bitcoin target for 2025, unaffected by U.S. election results

Share link:In this post: Bernstein predicts Bitcoin will reach $200,000 by the end of 2025. Key factors include the rise of debt in the United States and increased demand from spot ETFs. According to Bernstein, if Trump is to win, then Bitcoin may rise to between $80,000, and if Harris wins, Bitcoin may drop to $50,000.

Cryptopolitan2024/11/04 21:55

South Koreans pay 2.2% higher prices for Bitcoin as FOMO kicks in

Share link:In this post: As FOMO kicks in, Bitcoin holders in South Korea spend 2.2% more on purchases. The ‘Kimchi Premium’ was negative between Oct. 12 and Oct. 20 as Bitcoin traded below the global market average in South Korea. In 2024, the South Korean Won was the second largest fiat currency in Bitcoin, trading at 3.99% after the U.S. dollar, which was at 17.75%.

Cryptopolitan2024/11/04 21:55