In-depth revelation: Who stifled the vitality of Telegram mini-games?
As the tide recedes, it is necessary to deeply reflect on the strategic mistakes of the TON Foundation and seek a new narrative that can lead the next phase of development for the TON ecosystem.
Author: Shijiu Jun
Introduction
Recently, the data for Telegram bots and Miniapps has shown a significant downward trend.
Once upon a time, driven by the explosive growth of Clicker games, Telegram Miniapps became the focus of the blockchain field.
However, behind the prosperity lies a hidden crisis.
The TON Foundation has overly relied on Clicker games in its support strategy. Although this brought a surge of users and data in the short term, it also sowed the seeds of ecological imbalance.
As users' novelty fades, the issues of homogenization and lack of depth in Clicker games gradually emerge, leading to a backlash against the entire ecosystem.
Now, as the tide recedes, it is necessary to deeply reflect on the strategic mistakes of the TON Foundation and seek new narratives that can lead the next phase of development for the TON ecosystem. We have compiled BOT sources from the Telegram Apps Center, TON App, and The Open League (see appendix).
1. The Trend of MAU Decline is Unstoppable
In the past month, OGenLab has continuously monitored 820 Telegram projects.
From October 1 to October 31, despite the inability to deduplicate data, the accumulated Monthly Active Users (MAU) reached 879,922,503.
However, behind this huge number lies a worrying sharp decline.
In one month, the total MAU decreased by 295,971,112 (unduplicated), equivalent to a drop of 33%.
This significant decline reveals a rapid decrease in user activity, reflecting that the entire ecosystem is experiencing unprecedented challenges.
[Image source: https://x.com/OGenLab/status/1854060874304221435]
Through the analysis of daily data, OGenLab found that this decline is showing an amplifying trend.
Especially for large projects with over 5 million users, the initial MAU decline was relatively slow, seemingly maintaining a certain stability.
However, over time, the decline rate of these projects began to accelerate, even leading the decline in the later stages, having a more profound impact on the overall MAU decrease.
This phenomenon indicates that even the leading projects with a large user base are struggling to withstand the impact of user loss, highlighting deep-seated issues within the ecosystem that urgently need to be addressed.
2. Structural Changes Behind Project Fluctuations
Among the 820 projects monitored by OGenLab, 249 projects showed an increase in October, while 491 projects experienced a decline.
From the analysis of the bar chart, it is clear that the leading and historically established projects—represented by those that have already issued tokens like Hamster, Dogs, and Catizen—saw the most significant declines.
These once-glorious star projects are now facing a substantial decrease in user activity and participation, reflecting a weakening of their growth momentum and a fading novelty for users.
[Image source: https://x.com/OGenLab/status/1854060874304221435]
At the same time, some emerging projects have provided positive growth, injecting new vitality into the market.
However, in terms of quantity and growth rate, the increase from these new projects is far from compensating for the decline of older projects.
In projects with a user base of less than 1 million, the number of declining projects still exceeds that of increasing projects.
This indicates that even in the small and medium-sized project sector, the overall trend remains downward, with the market lacking sufficient new forces to reverse this situation.
This phenomenon highlights the structural issues present in the TON ecosystem: the diminishing appeal of older projects, insufficient growth momentum from new projects, and the urgent need for new stimuli and direction for the entire ecosystem.
How to maintain user stickiness while providing more innovative and valuable applications has become an urgent issue for the foundation and developers.
3. Migration of Project Scales and Degradation of User Demand
To gain a deeper understanding of the changes in the ecosystem, OGenLab categorized the 820 monitored projects by Monthly Active Users (MAU) into several tiers: over 50 million, 10 million to 50 million, 5 million to 10 million, 2 million to 5 million, 500,000 to 2 million, 100,000 to 500,000, 20,000 to 100,000, and below 20,000.
By observing the changes in these projects in October, several noteworthy trends were identified.
3.1. High-tier Projects Flowing to Lower Tiers
- >50 million MAU tier:
Number of projects: Decreased from 2 in the first week to 1 in the fourth week.
Flow: From the third week to the fourth week, 1 project in the >50 million tier downgraded to the 10 million-50 million tier.
- 10 million-50 million MAU tier:
Number of projects: Decreased from 18 in the first week to 15 in the fourth week.
Flow:
From the first week to the second week, 1 project downgraded to the 5 million-10 million tier;
From the second week to the third week, 2 projects downgraded to the 5 million-10 million tier;
From the third week to the fourth week, another 6 projects downgraded to the 5 million-10 million tier.
5 million-10 million MAU tier:
Number of projects: Increased from 22 in the first week to 31 in the fourth week.
Flow: On one hand, there was an influx of downgrading projects from higher tiers; on the other hand, some projects further downgraded to the 2 million-5 million tier.
It is evident that top-tier projects are sliding down to lower tiers.
The number of projects with over 50 million users decreased from 2 to 1, indicating a significant decline in user activity for these flagship projects.
This trend has led to a reduction in the number of high-tier projects and an increase in mid-tier projects, reflecting that the ecosystem is undergoing a top-down contraction.
3.2. Noticeable Decline in Mid-tier Projects
- 2 million-5 million MAU tier:
Number of projects: Increased from 35 in the first week to 41 in the fourth week, but the growth rate is relatively slow.
Flow:
From the third week to the fourth week, 10 projects downgraded from the 5 million-10 million tier to this tier;
At the same time, 10 projects downgraded from the 2 million-5 million tier to the 500,000-2 million tier.
- 500,000-2 million MAU tier:
Number of projects: Increased from 78 in the first week to 99 in the fourth week.
Flow: A large number of projects downgraded from higher tiers, while some projects also downgraded to the lower 100,000-500,000 tier.
Mid-sized projects have also not escaped the impact of declining activity.
The increase in the number of projects is mainly due to downgrading from high-tier projects rather than their own growth. This indicates that mid-tier projects are under increasing pressure to maintain user scale, with noticeable user loss.
3.3. Significant Increase in Small Projects
100,000-500,000 MAU tier:
Number of projects: Increased from 142 in the first week to 181 in the fourth week.
Flow: Many projects downgraded from higher tiers, especially from the 500,000-2 million and 2 million-5 million tiers. Additionally, some projects further downgraded to the 20,000-100,000 and <20,000 tiers.
20,000-100,000 MAU and <20,000 MAU tiers:
Number of projects: The number of projects in these two tiers has significantly increased. Among them, the <20,000 tier projects increased from 84 to 161.
Flow: Many projects downgraded from higher tiers, especially from the 100,000-500,000 tier. At the same time, some projects experienced a decline in activity, leading to a surge in the number of lowest-tier projects.
The increase in the number of small projects is not a sign of ecological prosperity but rather a result of the overall decline of projects.
Projects across all tiers are generally facing the issue of declining user activity, and the influx of new projects is insufficient to compensate for user loss, indicating a lack of fresh blood in the ecosystem.
[Image source: https://x.com/OGenLab/status/1854060874304221435]
The above data clearly reveals the comprehensive downward trend in the scale of projects within the TON ecosystem.
From top-tier projects to small projects, none can escape the impact of declining activity.
This trend reflects the current ecosystem's insufficient user stickiness and lack of innovative driving force, urgently needing new strategies and narratives to stimulate growth and regain user trust.
4. The Dilemmas and Highlights of OpenLeague Projects
In exploring the development status of various projects within the TON ecosystem, we focused on the OpenLeague project. Despite having a certain level of recognition and user base in the market, it still cannot avoid the trend of user decline, and in some aspects, the decline is even more severe.
Moreover, the project is mixed with varying quality.
However, it is worth noting that there are still one or two standout projects that have emerged, bringing hope to the entire ecosystem.
[Image source: https://x.com/OGenLab/status/1854060874304221435]
More Obvious User Decline Trend
Through data analysis of OpenLeague projects, we found:
Overall user activity is declining: Compared to other projects, OpenLeague's user decline is more significant, with the number of active users continuously decreasing. This may be related to the project's lack of sustained innovation and user engagement mechanisms.
Increased competitive pressure: In similar competitive and gaming projects, OpenLeague faces more intense competition. The emergence of new projects has diverted users, leading to a reduction in its market share.
Varying Quality of Projects
Mixed ecosystem: The quality of sub-projects and activities within OpenLeague varies, with some projects lacking clear positioning and high-quality content, making it difficult to attract and retain users.
User experience needs improvement: Some projects have deficiencies in design and functionality, resulting in a poor user experience during use, further accelerating user loss.
Highlights Worth Noting
Despite facing numerous challenges, there are still some outstanding projects in OpenLeague, such as "AKEDO Game" and "RentTycoon," which have shown significant growth on certain days and continue to rise.
5. A Whale Falls, All Things Rise or Ultimately Return to Zero
To gain a deeper understanding of user dynamics in projects, we studied the changes in projects from a week 30 days ago (September 24-30) to the most recent week (October 25-31).
On one hand, this helps us observe the change trends over the entire month;
On the other hand, since the official data provided is Monthly Active Users (MAU), the closer the sum of the slopes of the trends in these two periods is to 0, the higher the suspicion that the project is inflating numbers and lacks new users.
[Image source: https://x.com/OGenLab/status/1854060874304221435]
Analysis Method
We defined the following indicators for the two 7-day periods:
M1 (user change amount from September 24-30): During this period, M1 equals the effective user count (non-empty and greater than 10) on the last day of the period minus the effective user count (non-empty and greater than 10) on the first day of the period.
M2 (user change amount from October 25-31): Similarly, M2 equals the effective user count (non-empty and greater than 10) on the last day of this period minus the effective user count (non-empty and greater than 10) on the first day of the period.
Additionally, we plotted a two-dimensional coordinate system, using M1 as the x-axis and M2 as the y-axis, and added a reference line x=-y to assist in analysis.
Coordinate Quadrant Explanation
By plotting the data points of the projects in the coordinate system, we can assess the user trends of the projects based on their quadrant and position.
- First Quadrant (M1>0, M2>0)
Meaning: The project shows user growth in both the week 30 days ago and the most recent week.
Interpretation: These projects may have sustained growth momentum, with user activity steadily increasing, and are worth attention and follow-up.
- Second Quadrant (M1<0, M2>0)
Meaning: The project experienced a decline in user numbers in the week 30 days ago but has grown in the most recent week.
Interpretation: If the data point is located to the right of x=-y, it indicates that the project is beginning to reverse its decline and may become a promising project.
If located to the left of x=-y, it indicates that the growth is insufficient to compensate for the previous decline, and the project may still be in an unstable state.
- Third Quadrant (M1<0, M2<0)
Meaning: The project has seen a decline in user numbers in both time periods.
Interpretation: These projects show a clear downward trend, with user activity continuously decreasing, posing a high risk of termination.
- Fourth Quadrant (M1>0, M2<0)
Meaning: The project grew in the week 30 days ago but declined in the most recent week.
Interpretation: If the data point is located to the left of x=-y, it indicates that the decline has exceeded the previous growth, and users may enter a downward spiral, which requires caution.
Suspicion of Inflated Numbers
Projects with data points close to the origin and near x=-y, where the sum of M1 and M2 is close to zero, indicate that the user changes of the project lack real growth and may involve inflated numbers, with actual new users being few.
Promising Projects
Projects located in the second quadrant and to the right of x=-y, despite previous declines, show significant user growth recently, indicating a rebound trend and warranting further attention.
Risky Projects
Projects in the third quadrant with continuous user declines need to assess their viability and improvement strategies.
Projects to Watch
Projects in the fourth quadrant and to the left of x=-y, which have seen significant recent declines, may be trapped in a situation of continuous user loss.
From the above content, we can summarize simply:
User Growth Projects (First and Second Quadrants) deserve focused attention, as these projects demonstrate sustained growth or rebound potential.
User Decline Projects (Third and Fourth Quadrants) require in-depth analysis of the reasons for decline and timely adjustments to strategies to regain users.
Suspected Inflated Number Projects need to strengthen data monitoring to ensure data authenticity and maintain the healthy development of the ecosystem.
6. Conclusion
Currently, Telegram Miniapp applications are facing unprecedented difficulties, primarily concentrated in two areas: commercialization and content.
Commercialization Aspect:
The current commercialization model mainly revolves around selling volume and token issuance, focusing on traffic monetization.
However, the challenge at this stage is that sellers and exchanges of tokens have already purchased a wave of traffic, making the new traffic less attractive to them.
At the same time, a large number of tokens have been generated in games, but there is a lack of specific application scenarios and consumption mechanisms.
After players acquire tokens, their only choice is to sell, leading to a rapid decline of projects after token issuance.
Content Aspect:
Currently, the vast majority of top games are dominated by Clicker games and a series of viral tasks, lacking playability.
Over time, users will form inherent stereotypes about Telegram games, attracting players who are primarily of the "Earn to Sell" type.
To reverse this situation, it is necessary to create truly playable games, rebuild from the ground up, and restore user trust. The emergence of a new shining game star in the Telegram sky would be a truly touching masterpiece.
We sincerely hope to see new content creativity and new commercialization models that will rejuvenate these games and lead users into a real gaming world.
OGenLab is an enthusiastic game studio, standing at the forefront of emerging tracks, pursuing infinite possibilities for the future.
This analysis was also first published on Twitter: https://x.com/OGenLab/status/1854060874304221435
In the future, OGenLab will continue to monitor the data pulse of Telegram and will soon conduct in-depth analysis of projects' data on the TON chain.
We have witnessed the fall of giant projects and the rise of emerging forces, but this is still not enough to illuminate the entire world.
As the saying goes, "After the mountains and rivers, there seems to be no way, but in the dark willows and blooming flowers, there is another village," we hope to see the prosperous scene of Telegram applications soon.
References:
1. Telegram Apps Center: https://tapps.center/
2. TON App: https://ton.app/
3. The Open League: https://ton.org/open-league
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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