Deep Dive: Who Killed the Telegram Arcade?

Original Title: "In-Depth Investigation: Who Killed the Telegram Mini Game's Vitality?"

Original Source: OGenLab

Introduction

Recently, Telegram bot and Miniapp data have shown a noticeable downward trend.

Once upon a time, fueled by the explosive growth of Clicker games, Telegram Miniapps briefly became a focal point in the blockchain space.

However, behind the prosperity lies a crisis.

The TON Foundation overly relied on the Clicker game in its support strategy. While it brought about a short-term surge in users and data, it also sowed the seeds of ecological imbalance.

As the novelty wore off for users, the issues of Clicker game homogenization and lack of depth gradually surfaced, causing the entire ecosystem to suffer backlash.

Today, as the tide recedes, there is a need for deep reflection on the TON Foundation's strategic missteps and to seek a new narrative that can lead the next stage of TON ecosystem development.

We compiled BOT data from the Telegram Apps Center, TON App, The Open League (see Appendix)

1. The Steep Decline in MAU Trends is Unstoppable

Over the past month, OGenLab has continuously monitored 820 Telegram projects.

From October 1 to October 31, although de-duplication of data was not possible, the cumulative Monthly Active Users (MAU) reached 879,922,503.

However, behind this massive number lies a worrisome steep decline.

Within one month, the total MAU decreased by 295,971,112 (unduplicated), equivalent to a 33% drop.

This significant decline reveals a rapid decrease in user engagement, reflecting unprecedented challenges the entire ecosystem is facing.

[Image Source: https://x.com/OGenLab/status/1854060874304221435]

Through the analysis of daily data, OGenLab found that this decline is exhibiting an amplification trend.

Especially for large projects with over 5 million users, the initial decline in Monthly Active Users (MAU) is relatively slow, seemingly still maintaining a certain level of stability.

However, over time, the decline rate of these projects started to accelerate, even accelerating to lead the decline in the later stages, having a more profound impact on the overall MAU decline. This phenomenon indicates that even large-scale top projects struggle to withstand user churn, revealing underlying issues within the ecosystem that urgently need to be addressed.

2. Structural Changes Behind Project Price Movements

Among the 820 projects monitored by OGenLab, in October, 249 projects showed an increase while 491 projects experienced a decline.

From the analysis of the bar chart, it is clear to see that well-established and long-standing projects—represented by already issued tokens such as Hamster, Dogs, Catizen, and others—experienced the most significant declines.

These once shining star projects are now facing a significant decrease in user activity and engagement, reflecting a weakening in their growth momentum and the fading novelty among users.

[Image Source: https://x.com/OGenLab/status/1854060874304221435]

At the same time, some emerging projects have shown positive growth, injecting new vitality into the market.

However, in terms of quantity and growth rate, the growth of these new projects is far from enough to offset the impact of the decline in older projects. In projects with less than 1 million users, the number of declining projects still exceeds the number of rising projects. This indicates that even in the small to medium-sized project sector, the overall trend is still downward, and the market lacks enough new forces to reverse this situation.

This phenomenon highlights the structural issues in the TON ecosystem: the waning appeal of older projects, the inadequate growth momentum of new projects, and the entire ecosystem urgently needing new stimulation and direction.

How to provide more innovative and valuable applications while maintaining user stickiness has become a pressing issue for foundations and developers.

3. Migration of Project Scale and Downgrade of User Demand

In order to gain a deeper understanding of the ecosystem's changes, OGenLab divided the monitored 820 projects into multiple tiers based on Monthly Active Users (MAU): 50 million and above, 10 million - 50 million, 5 million - 10 million, 2 million - 5 million, 500,000 - 2 million, 100,000 - 500,000, 20,000 - 100,000, and below 20,000.

By observing the transitions of these projects in October, some noteworthy trends were discovered.

3.1. Movement of High-tier Projects to Lower Tiers

·>50 million MAU Tier:

Number of Projects: Decreased from 2 in Week 1 to 1 in Week 4.

Transition: From Week 3 to Week 4, 1 project in the>50 million tier downgraded to the 10 million - 50 million tier.

· 10 million - 50 million MAU Tier:

Number of Projects: Decreased from 18 in Week 1 to 15 in Week 4.

Transition:

· From Week 1 to Week 2, 1 project downgraded to the 5 million - 10 million tier;

· From Week 2 to Week 3, 2 projects downgraded to the 5 million - 10 million tier;

· From Week 3 to Week 4, another 6 projects downgraded to the 5 million - 10 million tier.

· 5 million - 10 million MAU Tier:

Number of Projects: Increased from 22 in Week 1 to 31 in Week 4.

Transition: On one hand, there was an inflow of downgraded projects from higher tiers; on the other hand, some projects further downgraded to the 2 million - 5 million tier.

It is clearly visible that top-tier projects are sliding towards lower tiers. The number of projects with over 50 million users decreased from 2 to 1, indicating a significant decrease in user activity for these flagship projects. This trend led to a reduction in the number of high-tier projects and an increase in mid-tier projects, reflecting an ecosystem undergoing a top-down contraction.

3.2. Significant Decrease in Mid-sized Projects

· 2-5 Million MAU Tier:

Number of Projects: Increased from 35 in Week 1 to 41 in Week 4, but the growth rate was relatively slow.

Downgrades: From Week 3 to Week 4, 10 projects downgraded from the 5-10 Million tier to this tier; at the same time, 10 projects further downgraded from the 2-5 Million tier to the 500k-2 Million tier.

· 500k-2 Million MAU Tier:

Number of Projects: Increased from 78 in Week 1 to 99 in Week 4.

Downgrades: Many projects downgraded from higher tiers, while some projects also downgraded to the 100k-500k tier.

Medium-sized projects were also not immune to the decline in activity. The increase in the number of projects was mainly due to downgrades from higher-tier projects rather than their own growth. This indicates that mid-sized projects are facing increasing pressure to maintain their user base, with significant user attrition.

3.3. Significant Increase in Small-sized Projects

· 100k-500k MAU Tier:

Number of Projects: Increased from 142 in Week 1 to 181 in Week 4.

Downgrades: Many projects downgraded from higher tiers, especially from the 500k-2 Million and 2-5 Million tiers. Additionally, some projects further downgraded to the 20k-100k and <20k tiers.

· 20k-100k MAU and <20k MAU Tiers:

Number of Projects: There was a significant increase in the number of projects in these two tiers. Specifically, the number of <20k tier projects increased from 84 to 161.

Downgrades: Many projects downgraded from higher tiers, especially from the 100k-500k tier. At the same time, some projects experienced a decline in activity, leading to a sharp rise in the number of projects in the lowest tier.

An increase in the number of small-scale projects is not a sign of ecosystem prosperity, but rather a result of an overall project decline. Projects at all levels are facing the issue of declining user activity, and the influx of new projects is not sufficient to offset user churn, leading to a lack of fresh blood in the ecosystem.

[Image Source: https://x.com/OGenLab/status/1854060874304221435]

The above data clearly reveals the comprehensive decline in the project scale of the TON ecosystem. From top projects to small-scale projects, none have been able to avoid the impact of declining activity. This trend reflects the ecosystem's current lack of user stickiness, innovation drive, and the urgent need for new strategies and narratives to stimulate growth and regain user trust.

4. The Dilemma and Highlights of the OpenLeague Project

When discussing the development status of various projects in the TON ecosystem, we took note of the OpenLeague project. Despite having a certain level of market visibility and user base, it still could not escape the downward trend in users, with some aspects experiencing even more severe declines. Additionally, the project is a mixed bag internally, with varying levels of quality. However, there are still one or two standout projects that bring hope to the entire ecosystem.

[Image Source: https://x.com/OGenLab/status/1854060874304221435]

The trend of user decline is more pronounced. Through an analysis of the data of the OpenLeague project, we found:

· Overall decline in user activity: Compared to other projects, OpenLeague has seen a greater decrease in users, with the number of active users continuously decreasing. This may be related to the project's lack of sustained innovation and user engagement mechanisms.

· Increased competitive pressure: In the same type of competitive sports and gaming projects, OpenLeague faces more intense competition. The emergence of new projects has siphoned users away, leading to a shrinking market share.

Uneven Project Quality

Mixed Bag Ecosystem: The quality of internal sub-projects and activities within OpenLeague varies. Some projects lack a clear positioning and high-quality content, making it difficult to attract and retain users.

· User Experience Needs Improvement: Some projects have shortcomings in design and functionality, leading to a poor user experience during usage, further accelerating user churn.

Highlights Worth Noting

Despite facing various challenges, there are still some outstanding projects in OpenLeague. For example, "AKEDO Game" and "RentTycoon" have shown deeper shades of green on certain days and have been steadily rising.

5. The Fall of a Whale Brings Life to All or Ends in Nothing

To gain a deeper understanding of the user dynamics of projects, we studied the project changes from a week 30 days ago (September 24 - September 30) and the most recent week (October 25 - October 31). On one hand, this helped us observe the trend changes over the entire month; on the other hand, since the official data provided is Monthly Active Users (MAU), if the sum of the slope of trends in these two periods approaches 0, the project is more likely to have fake activity and lack new users.

[Image Source: https://x.com/OGenLab/status/1854060874304221435]

Our analysis method focused on two 7-day periods and defined the following metrics: M1 (User Change from September 24 - September 30): During this period, M1 is equal to the number of active users (non-empty and greater than 10) on the last day of the period minus the number of active users (non-empty and greater than 10) on the first day of the period. M2 (User Change from October 25 - October 31): Similarly, M2 is equal to the number of active users (non-empty and greater than 10) on the last day of the period minus the number of active users (non-empty and greater than 10) on the first day of the period. Additionally, we plotted a two-dimensional coordinate system with M1 on the x-axis, M2 on the y-axis, and added an auxiliary line x=-y to assist in the analysis.

Coordinate Quadrant Explanation By plotting the project's data points on the coordinate system, we can evaluate the project's user trend based on the quadrant and position it occupies.

· Quadrant 1 (M1>0, M2>0)

Meaning: The project has shown user growth in the week 30 days ago and the most recent week.

Interpretation: These projects may have sustainable growth momentum, with user activity steadily increasing, deserving attention and follow-up.

· Quadrant 2 (M1<0, M2>0)

Meaning: The project had a decrease in users in the week 30 days ago but has grown in the most recent week.

Interpretation: If the data point is to the right of x=-y, it indicates the project is starting to reverse its decline and may become a promising project. If it is to the left of x=-y, the growth may not be sufficient to offset the previous decline, indicating the project might still be in an unstable state.

· Quadrant 3 (M1<0, M2<0)

Meaning: The project has experienced a decrease in users in both time periods.

Interpretation: These projects show a clear downward trend, with user activity consistently decreasing, posing a high risk of termination.

· Quadrant 4 (M1>0, M2<0)

Meaning: The project had growth in the week 30 days ago but a decline in the most recent week.

Interpretation: If the data point is to the left of x=-y, it indicates that the project's decline has exceeded the previous growth, and users may be entering a downward spiral, warranting caution.

Suspected Botting Project

Projects with data points close to the origin and near x=-y, where the sum of M1 and M2 is close to zero, indicate that the project's user change lacks genuine growth, potentially involving botting behavior, with actual new user acquisition being minimal.

Potential Project

Projects located in Quadrant 2 and to the right of x=-y, showing significant recent user growth despite previous declines, demonstrating a rebound trend and warranting further attention.

Risk Project

Projects located in Quadrant 3, experiencing continuous user decline, requiring an evaluation of their viability and improvement strategies.

Caution Project

Located in the fourth quadrant and to the left of x=-y, the project has experienced a recent significant price drop, possibly leading to a situation of continuous user attrition. To briefly summarize the above content:

· User Growth Projects (first and second quadrants) deserve special attention, as these projects demonstrate potential for sustained growth or rebound.

· User Attrition Projects (third and fourth quadrants) require in-depth analysis of the reasons for the decline in users, and prompt adjustment of strategies to retain users.

· Suspected Wash Trading Projects need to strengthen data monitoring to ensure data integrity and maintain a healthy ecosystem.

6. Summary

Currently, the Telegram Mini Program application is facing unprecedented challenges, mainly concentrated in two areas: monetization and content.

Monetization Aspect:

The current monetization model mainly focuses on volume sales and listings, with the core emphasis on traffic monetization. However, the current challenge lies in the fact that listing sellers and exchanges have already purchased a wave of traffic, making the new traffic less attractive to them. At the same time, a large number of tokens have been generated in the game, but they lack specific use cases and consumption mechanisms. After players obtain the tokens, their only choice is to sell, leading to a rapid decline in the project shortly after listing.

Content Aspect:

Currently, the vast majority of top games are primarily based on clickers and a series of split tasks, lacking gameplay. Over time, users will form a fixed impression of Telegram games, and the attracted players are mostly of the Earn-to-Sell type.

To reverse this situation, it is necessary to create games with strong playability, rebuild from the ground up, and reshape user trust. Rising in the sky of Telegram will be the next brilliant game star that truly touches people's hearts. We also sincerely look forward to seeing new content ideas and new monetization models, revitalizing these games, leading users into the real gaming world. OGenLab is an enthusiastic game studio, standing at the pinnacle of the emerging track, pursuing infinite possibilities of the future.

This analysis is also first published on the Twitter platform:  https://x.com/OGenLab/status/1854060874304221435. In the future, OGenLab will continue to pay attention to the data pulse of Telegram. Soon, they will conduct in-depth analysis of the project's TON on-chain data. We have witnessed the fall of giant projects and the rise of emerging forces, but this is not enough to light up the whole world. Just as "the mountains are high and the road is long, in the dim forest, there is another bright village ahead," we hope to see the prosperous scene of the Telegram application soon.

Reference:

1. Telegram Apps Center: https://tapps.center/

2. TON App: https://ton.app/

3. The Open League: https://ton.org/open-league

Original Article Link