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Bitget Research: BTC Spot ETF Net Outflows Declining Daily, TON Ecosystem TVL Surpasses $80 Million

Tommy & Jarseed
2024/03/25
Bitget Research: BTC Spot ETF Net Outflows Declining Daily, TON Ecosystem TVL Surpasses $80 Million
In the past 24 hours, many new popular tokens and topics have emerged in the market, which are likely to be the next wealth creation opportunities.

Overview

As the net daily outflows of spot BTC ETFs slowed down, a significant rebound in the broader market has occurred. This week, the focus will be on whether spot BTC ETFs can reverse to net inflows and the release of core PCE data on Friday. If no new adverse policies or economic data emerge, the market correction may be nearing its end, potentially leading to a new uptrend.
  • Sectors with strong wealth creation effect: TON ecosystem and the Hong Kong concept sector, with the ERC404 sector's potential revival also worth monitoring.
  • Top searched tokens and topics by users: ZK, NGL, Base ecosystem (DEGEN and BRETT), RWA concept (ONDO and CFG).
  • Potential airdrop opportunities: Espresso and Fuel Network.
Data collection time: March 25, 2024, 4:00 AM (UTC)

1. Market Environment

From a macro perspective, during last week's Federal Reserve FOMC meeting, the majority of members projected three rate cuts in 2024, indicating a dovish stance. This week's focus is on the core PCE data release on Friday. In the absence of new adverse policies or economic data, the overall outlook for the cryptocurrency market is currently not negative, suggesting the market correction might be nearing its conclusion.
Regarding spot BTC ETFs, from March 18 to March 22, there were consecutive net outflows during the five working days of the last week, with daily net outflows of $154 million, $326 million, $262 million, $94 million, and $52 million, respectively. Notably, the net outflow amount has been decreasing daily since March 19. If this trend of reduced net outflows continues this week or reverses into net inflows, BTC may drive a further rebound in the broader market.

2. Wealth Creation Sectors

2.1 Sector movements — TON ecosystem (TON, UP, and FISH)

Main reasons:
  • Significant improvement in fundamental data: According to DefiLlama, the TON ecosystem's TVL has surpassed $80 million, which is four times the value at the beginning of March.
  • The TON Foundation will launch the first open league on April 1, offering $115 million worth of Toncoin as community rewards to stimulate ecosystem development and user activity.
Gainers: Over the past month, the TON token has increased by 160%, the TON ecosystem's IDO platform and Bitget Launchpad project TopUp (token UP) by 313%, and the TON ecosystem memecoin FISH by 1321%.
Factors affecting future market conditions:
(1) The growth trend of TVL in the TON ecosystem and infrastructure development: Even though TON's TVL has surpassed $80 million, it is still small compared to its market cap of nearly $19 billion. The TON ecosystem lacks standout native DeFi products to attract investment, and the official wallet has faced criticism from the community. The effectiveness of the TON Foundation's $115 million community rewards in promoting activity and improving native ecosystem projects will directly affect the development speed and potential of the TON ecosystem. If the TON ecosystem continues to attract funds, it is worth focusing on memecoins on TON with lower market caps and good liquidity, seeking opportunities for high returns with small investments.
(2) The value capture and profit model validation of TON for Telegram: The market's high expectations for TON revolve around capturing the platform value of Telegram. The key to significant price increases for TON will be how it integrates with Telegram and whether it can turn the concept of "backed by 1 billion users" into a reliable profit model.

2.2 Sector movements — Hong Kong concept sector (CFX and ACH)

Main reason: The 2024 Hong Kong Web3 Festival is scheduled for April 6. Conflux (CFX), as a representative token of the Hong Kong concept sector, has shown relative price stability and was among the first to rebound during the market pullback, presenting some speculative opportunities before the start of the Web3 conference in Hong Kong.
Gainers: Over the past month, Conflux (CFX) has increased by 113%, and Alchemy Pay (ACH) by 60%.
Factors affecting future market conditions:
The performance of tokens within the Hong Kong concept sector is closely linked to policy announcements. Whenever Hong Kong introduces proposals or policies favorable to the Web3 industry, it could likely trigger speculation in this sector. It is also important to note that the hype cycle for this sector tends to be short, and there is a risk of prices quickly falling after the conference as expectations may be fully priced in.

2.3 Sectors to focus on next — ERC404 (PANDORA)

Main reasons:
  • The once-popular NFT "Ghozali", launched by an Indonesian man, has started a token presale in collaboration with Pandora to create Ghozali 404. After the fundraising began, it quickly reached the hard cap of 400 ETH, and a related tweet received up to 1.2 million views within 12 hours. This demonstrates Pandora's project team's strategy of embracing market trends and expanding partnerships.
  • In the past month, the PANDORA token has experienced a 50% decline, and it is now 65% below its all-time high, offering a good entry opportunity for investors who are bullish on the potential resurgence of this innovative sector.
Specific token list: PANDORA

3. Top Searches

3.1 Popular DApps

Polyhedra Network:
Polyhedra Network is a ZK full-stack project that builds next-generation infrastructure for Web3 interoperability, scalability, and privacy using Zero-Knowledge Proof (ZKP) technology. The project is groundbreaking in that it will truly enable ZK-based multi-chain interoperability, especially with its vision to build the world's largest interoperable ecosystem for Bitcoin. Since its launch, it has achieved a market cap of $240 million, currently ranked 2400th on CoinMarketCap. Investors are advised to closely monitor the project's progress and patiently wait as it gradually develops and its value is recognized by the market.

3.2 X (former Twitter)

Bitget Research: BTC Spot ETF Net Outflows Declining Daily, TON Ecosystem TVL Surpasses $80 Million image 0
Entangle Protocol:
Entangle Protocol is the first cross-chain protocol that utilizes synthetic derivatives to collaborate on liquidity and assign value to liquidity within the universal Layer 1 and Layer 2 ecosystems. Simply put, the protocol enables users to interact seamlessly with liquidity pools across chains. As the blockchain industry evolves and more chains and Layer 2 solutions emerge, bridging liquidity across multiple chains becomes increasingly essential. Entangle, as a leading project in this domain, is expected to significantly increase in value during bull markets. Investors are advised to keep a close eye on the project's token, NGL, especially updates on integrating more high TVL ecosystems.

3.3 Google Search (Global and Regional)

Bitget Research: BTC Spot ETF Net Outflows Declining Daily, TON Ecosystem TVL Surpasses $80 Million image 1
Global focus:
(1) Overall hot search rankings highlight the RWA sector's prominent performance:
Main reason: BlackRock has recently filed with SEC to offer the BlackRock USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund Ltd., in partnership with asset tokenization firm Securitize. This initiative, marking the debut of BlackRock's first tokenized fund, is expected to further boost RWA projects and contribute to the continued rise in the TVL of the RWA sector tokens.
Specific projects: Influenced by the news, leading projects within the ecosystem will continue to benefit. Key projects to watch include leading RWA tokens such as ONDO, MPL, and GFI. Over the past 24 hours, ONDO has seen a 28.8% increase, MPL 8.2%, and GFI 26.9%, with active trading and sustained search interest in the sector.
Regional focus:
(1) In Europe and the CIS region, hot searches mainly focus on memecoins:
Following the memecoin frenzy on the Solana chain, the Base chain has recently become the new hotspot for memecoins, continuously bringing forth memecoins with excellent price performances. When such a frenzy occurs on the Base chain, not only does the Base chain benefit, but also early investors who identified promising projects, as well as Aerodrome, the largest DEX on the Base chain. Investors can pay attention to the performance of various Base chain projects such as AERO, BRETT, and DEGEN from these perspectives.
(2) RWAs frequently appear in hot searches in various countries and regions:
RWAs are commonly viewed as one of the pathways for large-scale capital to enter the crypto industry and allow global users to enjoy the benefits of investing in real-world assets across countries, including real estate, energy, government bonds, etc. As BlackRock further expands into this sector, some assets within the industry have recently been subject to speculative investment, attracting high user interest. Investors should keep an eye on leading projects in this sector, such as ONDO, CFG, PENDLE, and POLYX.

4. Potential Airdrop Opportunities

Espresso
Espresso is a shared sequencer market project utilizing ZK-Rollups to address consensus and interoperability issues across Layer 2 solutions. At the core of Espresso's strategy are privacy and decentralization, with the project's core team comprising members of the Stanford University Applied Cryptography Group.
The project recently announced the completion of its Series B financing round, raising $28 million led by A16Z, with participation from Polychain, Coinbase Ventures, Sequoia, and others, boasting an impressive lineup of investors.
How to participate: The project is currently in its early stages. Users can get involved by participating as validator nodes, potentially qualifying for early airdrops. For detailed instructions, refer to the official documentation: https://docs.espressosys.com/sequencer/guides/running-a-sequencer-node.
Fuel Network
Fuel Network is Ethereum's modular execution layer. Initially, Fuel v1 served as a scaling solution for Ethereum, utilizing the Optimistic Rollup model for scalable payments, and was deployed at the end of 2020. Fuel v1 adopts the UTXO model, which facilitates faster transaction processing due to parallel validation on the user's hardware. Currently, Fuel has initiated the v2 high-speed modular execution layer program to achieve true scalability.
On September 7, 2022, Fuel Labs announced the completion of an $80 million fundraising round led by Blockchain Capital and Stratos Technologies, with participation from Alameda Research, CoinFund, and others.
How to participate: Download the Fuel Wallet from the Fuel Network official website, obtain test tokens through the official Discord community, swap tokens on the Fuel testnet, interact with some of the DApps, and maintain a certain level of address activity.
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